Powering the Last Mile

Episode Narrative

In the heart of Sub-Saharan Africa, the past three decades tell a story of potential and paradox. From 1991 to 2019, the region experienced an explosive growth in its GDP, increasing sevenfold. Yet, within that impressive figure lies a stark contrast: GDP per capita barely grew by 49%. This discrepancy is not merely numerical; it underscores deep-seated challenges and persistent inequalities. Unlike East Asia, where economies surged with productivity and inclusion, Sub-Saharan Africa found itself grappling with the complexities of globalization, its benefits often out of reach for the many.

The landscape of Sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s to the 2010s painted a picture of reliance. Physical capital accumulation — investments in roads, buildings, and infrastructure — accounted for a staggering 67% of real GDP growth across 31 countries. Meanwhile, human capital, the people and their skills, contributed only 22%. This imbalance emphasizes a crucial point: growth was heavily hinged on physical assets, often neglecting the critical investment in education, training, and innovation. In this approach lies both promise and peril, as it created a foundation that could be both sturdy and, at times, rigid.

By the years extending from 2000 to 2018, the global stage was shifting, yet Africa's participation remained below par. Its share of global trade and foreign direct investment lingered under 5%. Resources flowed, but the region struggled with infrastructure deficits, low skills, and a weak integration into global value chains. The ripple effects of globalization were largely muted. As economies elsewhere soared, Africa faced barriers — both physical and systemic — that shackled its potential. The challenges were formidable, reflecting a reality where growth seemed tantalizingly close, yet frustratingly unattainable.

This era also marked the beginning of critical innovations in the region's approach to electricity and energy. From 2010 onward, companies like M-KOPA and Off-Grid Electric led the charge with pay-as-you-go solar home systems. These initiatives transformed the lives of millions in off-grid households, allowing them to access energy through mobile money micropayments. This elegant fusion of fintech and energy was a unique response to the vast energy challenges of the continent, illuminating homes and businesses while showcasing the ingenuity of African entrepreneurs.

During these transformative years, the West African Economic and Monetary Union, or WAEMU, experienced an economic growth surge fueled by capital accumulation and the deepening of financial institutions. However, the promise of this growth narrative was clouded by regulatory fragmentation and bureaucratic inefficiencies, which undermined public investment. These hurdles stifled what could have been broader, more inclusive progress.

Between 2012 and 2023, Rwanda's innovative “Electric Motorcycle Taxi Project” emerged as a beacon of hope in Kigali, supported by international donors who saw the potential for sustainable transport solutions. By introducing battery-swapping stations for electric boda-bodas, the project cut emissions and operational costs while catalyzing the creation of tech jobs. This model later inspired similar initiatives in other cities, signaling a new dawn for urban mobility across the region.

From 2014 to 2020, the rise of digital financial inclusion became another cornerstone of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Powered by mobile money platforms, particularly the well-known M-Pesa, digital transactions soared, showing a U-shaped relationship with economic growth. Initial expansions slowed growth, but after reaching a critical threshold, deeper financial inclusion began to act as a catalyst, accelerating the economy. Yet this transformation was not without its caveats; the level of institutional quality and governance significantly influenced its effectiveness.

The years from 2015 to 2025 saw the emergence of mini-grid developers like PowerGen and RVE.Sol, who electrified rural clinics, schools, and agricultural processing centers through solar-hybrid systems. These systems often employed Internet of Things technology for monitoring and invoicing, marking a significant step towards sustainable energy solutions in areas with weak-grid access. This blend of technology and renewable energy offered a glimmer of a brighter future, where communities could thrive despite previous neglect.

Simultaneously, African tech hubs, such as Nairobi’s iHub and Lagos’s CcHub, emerged as incubators for innovation. By the dawn of 2021, over two billion dollars in venture capital flowed into these ecosystems, directly reflecting a burgeoning confidence in local talent and African ingenuity. These hubs nurtured startups focused on cleantech, agritech, and healthtech, igniting a wave of new possibilities in a region rich with potential yet often hindered by the weight of its past.

In 2021, the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aimed to foster intra-African trade by reducing tariffs. However, as the aspirations climbed, so did the barriers. Non-tariff conflicts and inadequate transport infrastructure stifled the implementation of this ambitious initiative, limiting the early gains that had been anticipated. The journey toward greater economic integration was riddled with challenges, echoing the broader themes of disparity and missed opportunities in the region’s economic narrative.

Despite these promising advances, 2018 revealed that Sub-Saharan Africa was still the least electrified region globally, with over 600 million people lacking access to electricity. This stark reality not only showcased the immense demand for decentralized renewable resources but also exposed the long-standing gaps in grid extension and maintenance. The statistics resonated deeply, as millions awaited the illumination that a reliable energy supply could bring.

By the years spanning 2019 to 2025, electric vehicle startups such as Ampersand in Rwanda and Roam in Kenya began scaling their operations, introducing battery-swapping networks for motorcycles and buses. These companies leveraged local assembly and fintech partnerships to reduce costs, demonstrating an innovative response to urban transportation needs while keeping a keen eye on sustainability. This was more than just business; it was a stride towards reshaping how cities moved and operated.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 acted as a catalyst, accelerating digital adoption throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. As lockdowns made cashless transactions essential, mobile money transactions surged by 23%. This unforeseen pandemic revealed an extraordinary resilience within the economic fabric of the region; the ability to adapt quickly to new realities became a defining trait.

Yet amid such growth, the education sector faced a severe crisis. As enrollment rates rose, the “learning crisis” persisted. Many students completed primary education lacking basic literacy and numeracy. This chasm between attendance and learning outcomes stifled human capital development, casting a shadow over the prospects for sustained economic growth in the years ahead.

In 2022, South Africa, the continent's industrial heavyweight, saw its annual GDP per capita growth average only 0.54%. This was disheartening, revealing the structural constraints that plagued even its most advanced economy. If the aspiring narratives of growth and innovation were to become reality, addressing these constraints with urgency became crucial.

As 2023 approached, public investment in infrastructure began to showcase clear growth benefits in various countries. However, unlike in places like Vietnam, where investments bore fruit, Africa often found itself wrestling with bureaucratic delays and corruption that stymied progress. The result was an “inverted-U” relationship between spending and impact — a poignant reminder that financial input does not guarantee positive results without effective systems to channel that investment.

The landscape of economic opportunity continued to evolve, and in 2025, Africa's population surpassed 1.4 billion, with over 56% under age 24. This demographic dividend held the promise of immense growth. Yet it was also a looming challenge; without adequate job creation and skills development, the risk of unmet expectations hung like a cloud. The question persisted: could a region rich in youth harness their energy and ambition to drive inclusive growth, or would the gap between potential and opportunity widen?

Reflecting on the trajectory from 1991 to 2025, we see that despite theorizing about growth driven by knowledge and innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa’s narrative remained disproportionately tied to physical capital and resource extraction. The gains in total factor productivity lagged behind other regions, creating a persistent challenge for sustainable and inclusive development. As we consider the lessons learned, we must ask: how can the region navigate the complexities of its past and position itself for a future where the last mile is powered not just by electricity and technology, but by the promise of its people? In this ongoing journey, the hope for a brighter, more inclusive future remains intertwined with the lessons of today.