Gulf Game of Thrones: MbS, MbZ, and the Blockade

Episode Narrative

In the vast tapestry of 20th and early 21st century history, the Middle East stands out not just for its vibrant cultures and rich traditions, but for its tumultuous, often violent political landscape. The years spanning from 1991 to 2025 serve as a poignant chapter in this ongoing saga. The individuals at the center of this turbulent tale — crown princes, presidents, and insurgent leaders — have maneuvered through a labyrinth of power struggles, making choices that echo through the lives of millions.

The Gulf War of 1991 marked a decisive shift in the global perception of the Middle East. As Iraqi tanks rolled into Kuwait, the world held its breath. The United States, under the leadership of President George H.W. Bush, mobilized a coalition that spanned continents. It was a moment of unity in the face of aggression, a dramatic beginning to a new era of American involvement in the region. The liberation of Kuwait wasn’t merely a military success; it solidified U.S. presence in the Gulf and stitched deeper ties into the fabric of Middle Eastern politics. The repercussions would be felt in the years that followed, as new alliances formed and old rivalries simmered.

In the early 1990s, the ink was scarcely dry on the Oslo Accords, an ambitious attempt to quell one of the longest-standing conflicts — the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Optimism flickered like a candle in the wind. The two-state solution promised peace, yet the reality proved stubborn. Progress would be slow. Each negotiation was met with skepticism, suspicion, and the ever-present shadow of violence. As the 1990s swept towards the dawn of the new millennium, these tensions continued to unravel, foreshadowing the tumult that lay ahead.

2001 ushered in the presidency of George W. Bush, marking a seismic shift in U.S. policy. The focus turned toward regime change and democratization, visions of a new order that promised stability. However, these dreams collided violently with reality. In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, a move that upended the balance of power across the region. What was initially perceived as a quick mission of liberation transformed into a nightmarish entanglement. Chaos erupted as sectarian divisions split the nation and numerous actors tried to fill the vacuum of power. The reverberations of this decision would shape the trajectory of the Middle East for decades, with far-reaching consequences often felt far beyond Iraq’s borders.

As the dust of the Iraq War began to settle, another wave of unrest swept across the region — the Arab Spring of 2011. Citizens took to the streets demanding dignity, justice, and an end to long-standing tyranny. Tunisia ignited the flame, and countries from Libya to Syria quickly followed. In this fervor, the hopes for democracy clashed spectacularly with the harsh realities of entrenched power. The aftermath often spiraled into violence, leaving countries fragmented and destabilized.

Amidst this tumultuous backdrop, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — emerged as a beacon of negotiation. For a fleeting moment, it signaled a desire for diplomatic engagement between Iran and Western powers. Yet, this atmosphere of cautious optimism was soon overshadowed by fresh animosities as regional rivalries intensified, often fueled by external influences and escalating proxy conflicts, particularly as Iran stretched its influence via alliances in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

The year 2017 marked a pivotal turning point, one defined by the blockade against Qatar. Initiated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, the severing of ties with Qatar was steeped in accusations of terrorism support. A rift widened among these Gulf states, revealing fissures of jealousy and rivalry. The blockade encapsulated the shifting dynamics of power within the Gulf, a stern reminder that camaraderie could be as fragile as sand. With Qatar forced into isolation, its resilience took shape through strategic alliances and a defiance that would reshape its international standing.

Two years later, in 2018, the world was horrified by the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The outcry was immediate and global. This incident cast a glaring light on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, fragility lurking beneath its polished facade. In the wake of Khashoggi’s death, public confidence seemed to falter, questioning the pillars of power that had long gone unexamined.

As the COVID-19 pandemic rolled through 2020, it unearthed additional cracks in the foundations of Middle Eastern economies, which were barely holding on. This crisis did not discriminate; it exacerbated existing political and social challenges, exposing the vulnerabilities scattered across the region. The pandemic shifted the focus inward, yet external pressures remained unrelenting. In particular, Iran and Saudi Arabia found themselves not just battling each other in the political arena, but also wrestling with the socio-economic fallout of a rapidly changing world.

By 2021, a sense of resolution began to creep in as the Qatar blockade drew to a close. After years of tensions, leaders gathered in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia, to sign a reconciliation agreement at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit. This act of diplomacy did not negate the years of discord, but it represented a cautious step back toward unity, even if the scars of the past lingered.

Moving into the 2020s, the dynamics continued to shift. The Abraham Accords — establishing normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states — marked a watershed moment in regional diplomacy. Long considered an unapproachable dream, this shift altered allegiances and set the stage for a reconfiguration of Middle Eastern politics.

Yet, the complexity of the geopolitical landscape remained a reality. The Gulf Cooperation Council states — chief among them, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — began carving out their own distinct paths, diverging from traditional U.S. alignments. They've sought to assert their autonomy, navigating diplomatic waters that were both familiar and fraught with hidden dangers.

Then came the escalating conflict in Yemen, a brutal civil war that further complicated the regional mosaic. Involving multiple actors and exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis, it served as a reminder of the fragility of peace in a region where hope often danced on a knife’s edge.

As the years rolled into 2023, an unexpected player emerged. China, long seen as a distant observer, began to actively broker peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In doing so, it introduced a new chapter in Middle Eastern diplomacy — one that suggested a reimagined world order, where traditional alliances could be challenged and reshaped.

The legacy of this turbulent period remains a tapestry woven with threads of ambition, conflict, and sometimes fleeting hope. Through the lens of history, the Middle East continues to reflect back upon itself — a mirror revealing not just its struggles but also its resilience. Today, individuals still find themselves at the mercy of the decisions made high in the political stratosphere. As we contemplate the future, one question looms like a specter: In the Gulf Game of Thrones, who will be the unlikely victor or the next fallen leader in this complex dance of power?