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Mutiny, Purges, and a New Boss

Wagner's June 2023 dash toward Moscow shatters the aura of control. Prigozhin dies weeks later; Surovikin is sidelined. In 2024, arrests hit top MoD officials, Shoigu is replaced by civilian Andrei Belousov, and Gerasimov endures.

Episode Narrative

The story of modern Russia's military is woven with threads of ambition, chaos, and power struggles. It begins in the tumultuous years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. As 1991 dawned, the fragile fabric of the USSR unraveled, leaving behind a nation searching for its identity. The military, once a bastion of Soviet strength, now faced an existential crisis. The command structure was in flux. Military leaders were thrust into the role of architects, attempting to construct a new Russian Federation's armed forces amidst the echoes of a disintegrating empire.

In August of that year, a coup attempt against then-President Mikhail Gorbachev revealed the tensions within the military. Hardliners sought to reclaim control, facing off against a wave of reformers yearning for a new direction. The streets of Moscow were charged with uncertainty. Soldiers who once stood firmly under the red banner now grappled with loyalties. They were not just soldiers; they were the embodiment of a dying regime straining to adapt to a revolution they hadn't anticipated. This period marked the critical transition from Soviet military doctrine to something entirely new. The chaotic landscape of the 1990s challenged commanders to redefine their roles while managing dwindling budgets and institutional upheaval.

As the years progressed, a veil of institutional chaos draped over the military. Budgets shrank and were hardly sufficient to maintain operations. The Kremlin, meanwhile, struggled to establish a coherent military identity. Commanders found themselves in a battle not only for resources but for relevance. The task was daunting. They faced not only external adversaries but the specter of internal disorganization, exacerbating their vulnerability. Reform attempts offered a glimmer of hope, yet their implementation was fraught with obstacles, a near impossible endeavor in turbulent times.

By the late 1990s, a new conflict emerged that would starkly test the mettle of military leadership: the Second Chechen War. In this brutal conflict, generals such as Aleksandr Lebed emerged as faces of a reassertive military strategy, albeit one marked by violence and brutal counterinsurgency tactics. The scars of war would shape military doctrine for years to come, as the lessons learned in Chechnya began to ripple through the ranks. The war was a cruel mirror reflecting the challenges of control and governance that haunted Russia. The need for a cohesive military presence became urgent, a desperate cry for strength amidst an ongoing insurgency that exploited the military’s weaknesses.

With the ascendance of Vladimir Putin at the dawn of the 21st century, a new chapter began. Military leaders found themselves entangled in the political sphere like never before. This integration brought about renewed focus on restoring military power and modernizing the armed forces. Putin’s ambitions for Russia demanded an efficient military, one that could project power and stability both at home and abroad. But with this ambition came widespread corruption, as many commanders struggled to adapt to the modernizing environment while held back by entrenched practices from the Soviet era.

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a pivotal turning point. It was a maneuver that sent shockwaves through international relations and shattered the post-Cold War order. Russian commanders seized the moment, employing hybrid warfare tactics that combined conventional forces with covert operations and proxy militias. This was a calculated effort to reinvigorate Russian influence on a global stage. Yet, it also raised questions about the balance of control within the military and the Kremlin's grip on power.

As the conflict in Eastern Ukraine unfolded, Russian military leaders found themselves grappling with low-intensity warfare. They balanced the need for operational effectiveness against a backdrop of public deniability. The battlefield was murky, fraught with challenges that demanded adaptability amidst political maneuvering. The Ministry of Defense initiated profound reforms aimed at improving both readiness and interoperability, while still wrestling with the ghosts of the past.

By 2018, the landscape was changing yet again. The number of contract personnel in the military began to rise, indicating a shift toward a more professional force. Yet, conscription remained a significant part of the structure. Commanders faced the daunting task of managing a mixed force, one that required different strategies and approaches as modernization efforts continued.

In 2022, the façade of military strength began to crumble. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A sense of urgency flooded the ranks. The military was put to the ultimate test, exposing stark weaknesses in logistics, intelligence, and command structures. The battlefield setbacks and heavy casualties became a stark reminder of the challenges that faced commanders at every level. This conflict was not merely a military engagement; it was a crucible that revealed the depths of institutional frailties.

Then came June of 2023, when the Wagner Group, led by the enigmatic Yevgeny Prigozhin, ignited a mutiny that rapidly advanced toward Moscow. This was a dramatic and audacious challenge against the very authority of the Russian military command and the Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin's carefully cultivated image of control was shattered. As armed men marched toward the capital, questions emerged about loyalty, allegiance, and the future of military power in Russia. Prigozhin's actions were a clarion call signaling dissatisfaction that echoed through the ranks, stirring fears of an internal collapse.

Only weeks later, the resolution took a dark turn. Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash, his ambitions silenced. In the wake of his demise, Dmitry Surovikin, a prominent figure associated with Wagner, was sidelined. This wasn’t merely a political reshuffle; it was a purge, a decisive moment of reassertion by the official military hierarchy. The power dynamics shifted once more as the Kremlin sought to reestablish control over its military and quell any remaining dissent.

In 2024, the tide of turmoil continued. A wave of arrests swept through the upper echelons of the Ministry of Defense, targeting those viewed as threats amidst the shifting political landscape. The arrest of senior officials underscored the precarious nature of loyalty within the ranks. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, once a cornerstone of military leadership, was replaced by civilian Andrei Belousov. This marked not merely a political change but a fundamental shift in the governance of military affairs.

Yet amidst this upheaval, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov retained his position, a symbol of continuity amidst chaos. His continued influence signaled the Kremlin’s reliance on experienced military expertise even as it sought to navigate through uncharted waters. The echoes of past conflicts reverberated through the decisions made in the halls of power.

As 2022 rolled into 2025, the landscape of warfare transformed yet again. Hybrid tactics became increasingly vital. Commanders adapted to modern warfare concepts, leveraging cyber operations, drone warfare, and advanced information operations. The Revolution in Military Affairs was reintroduced, placing Russia in a new paradigm of global combat. Military intelligence began to shift focus, prioritizing tactical and operational intelligence in a conflict that continued to evolve.

The militarization of the Arctic became apparent, drawing attention to strategic concerns. NATO's maneuvers, resource security, and the emerging dynamics in the region underlined the strategic imperative for Russian military commanders to bolster their presence. In the face of these international pressures, the lines between military and state action blurred further.

Throughout the span from 1991 to 2025, Russian military commanders intertwined their ambitions with the currents of political power. They became instruments of state policy — not merely warriors, but agents of repression and military intervention. The trajectory of their actions shaped not only the military identity of Russia but also the fabric of Russian society.

The story of the Russian military in the contemporary era is one of complexity, power struggles, and ambition. It is a narrative of a society grappling with its past while trying to assert itself anew in a rapidly changing world. In the shadows of historical ambition lies a question: Are these commanders, revered for their power, truly in control, or are they dancing to the tune of a society still reeling from its past? The echoes of their decisions continue to resonate, challenging us to reflect on the fragile balance between power, loyalty, and the very future of a nation.

Highlights

  • 1991-1996: Post-Soviet Russia’s military leadership faced severe challenges during the collapse of the USSR, with military commanders navigating the transition from Soviet structures to a new Russian Federation military, amid political instability and the 1991 August coup attempt against Gorbachev, which involved military hardliners.
  • 1990s: Russian military commanders operated in a context of declining military budgets, institutional chaos, and reform attempts, struggling to maintain control and readiness while the Kremlin sought to redefine Russia’s military role globally.
  • 1999-2000: The Second Chechen War marked a critical period for Russian military commanders, with commanders like General Aleksandr Lebed and later General Vladimir Shamanov playing key roles in reasserting federal control through brutal counterinsurgency campaigns, shaping the military’s operational doctrine.
  • 2000-2012: Under Putin’s leadership, military commanders saw increased political integration and emphasis on restoring Russian military power, with reforms aimed at professionalizing the officer corps and modernizing forces, though corruption and inertia persisted.
  • 2014: The annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in Eastern Ukraine marked a turning point, with Russian military commanders overseeing hybrid warfare tactics involving regular troops, special forces, and proxy militias, reflecting a new strategic culture of reimperialization.
  • 2014-2021: Russian commanders adapted to a protracted low-intensity conflict in Ukraine, balancing deniability with operational effectiveness, while the Ministry of Defense pursued reforms to improve readiness and interoperability, though challenges remained.
  • 2018: The share of contract personnel in the Russian military increased, reflecting a shift toward a more professional force, though conscription remained significant; commanders had to manage this mixed force structure amid ongoing modernization efforts.
  • 2022: The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically tested Russian military commanders, exposing weaknesses in intelligence, logistics, and command control, leading to significant battlefield setbacks and high casualties.
  • June 2023: The Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a rapid mutiny advancing toward Moscow, directly challenging the authority of the Russian military command and Ministry of Defense, shattering the Kremlin’s aura of control over its armed forces.
  • August 2023: Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash weeks after the mutiny, and Dmitry Surovikin, a prominent commander associated with Wagner, was sidelined, signaling a purge and reassertion of control by the official military hierarchy.

Sources

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  3. https://open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu/articles/5-266/v1
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